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Making Sense of It All
by Reid M. Watts,
ProgenyVC.com
Advice and
Perspective for Corporate Executives
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Friday,
7 March 2003 8:30 am
Boy, the myths and misinformation about
the high tech industry that journalists perpetuate!
Yesterday, for example, Robert Samuelson dedicated his
Washington Post column to trying to explain to the ordinary
newspaper reader what the ruckus is about regarding the recent
FCC decision.
Samuelson writes a
regular column on business and economic subjects for the Washington Post that is syndicated to other
newspapers.
Given the complexity of the arcane telecommunications industry,
not to mention regulatory processes that govern it, it is laudable
that he made an honest attempt to explain what is going on.
Unfortunately, the explanation was full of errors and popular myths,
with blame being ascribed to easy targets such as lawyers, publicists,
regulators and lobbyists. In short, his explanation has almost
nothing to do with the facts.
For example,
Samuelson wrote "No industry will confidently invest in the
future if (a) the economy is weak, (b) the industry has surplus
capacity and (c) the rules for recovering its investment are
unclear. Telecom now suffers all three ailments. The FCC can't be
blamed for (a) and (b) -- the Internet "bubble" is a
prime culprit -- but it bears much responsibility for (c)."
Although these
statements fit in well with the current journalistic
mythology, they do not fit the facts:
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The
"Internet bubble" is not the prime culprit for the
surplus capacity in the telecommunications industry. The
surplus capacity in the telecommunications networks was a
direct result of the Telecommunications Act of 1996, which for
the first time allowed real competition in
telecommunications in areas other than long distance and cellular services. Without that act of
Congress,
there would have been no surplus capacity, because there would
have been no new entrants into the market, and there would
have been no need for the regional Bell operating companies
(RBOCs) to upgrade to more modern equipment to meet the new
competition. The combination of the RBOCS upgrading and
the new entrants buying equipment for competitive networks
caused the telecommunications boom of the late 1990s, but also
caused the overcapacity that is haunting it today. |
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The
"Internet bubble" is also not the prime culprit for
the weak economy. The
Internet stock bubble was a result of some fundamental
economic factors, some of which are also key factors in the current weakness.
For example, there was a
significant expansion of the money supply between 1997 and
2000 due to the Federal Reserve's and other central banks'
actions to contain a monetary crisis that started in Asia and
was spreading to Russia and South America. The collapse of a
huge hedge fund (Long Term Capital) caused the Federal Reserve
to further increase the money supply to avoid a banking
crisis. The expanded money supply was recycled into the stock market and created the
"bubble". It also fueled the capital expenditure boom,
helping to create the overcapacity in
telecom and elsewhere in the economy. Economy-wide
overcapacity is a classical cause for economic weakness. |
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There is no
lack of clarity in the rules set into law by the
Telecommunications Act of 1996 and interpreted by the FCC,
although they may be incomprehensible to some journalists. The
rules were only too clear for the RBOCs, who for
obvious reasons did not want to cede their comfortable local
monopolies. The RBOCS fondly hoped that with the recent
Bush appointees on the FCC, the FCC would
reinterpret the rules in a way that would allow them to keep
their monopolies. They were mostly disappointed with the
decision (hence the ruckus), although they did get regulatory
relief for broadband expansions because the FCC found that
there is now sufficient competition from cable companies to
keep broadband pricing in check. |
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For
the reader who is looking for some deeper insight into what is going on and
going wrong in the telecommunications industry, I suggest reading The
Slingshot Syndrome, particularly Chapter 7. For an explanation
of the FCC decision and its effects on investment, read my February
21 and 24
columns. For an eye-opening insight into how some journalists decide what
to write and how some of the journalistic myths are created, see the February
11 column.
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A new column
will be posted here every weekday morning at 8:30 ET. Let me know what
you think – email me at reid@progenyvc.com
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