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Making Sense of It All

by Reid M. Watts, ProgenyVC.com

Advice and Perspective for Corporate Executives

Friday, 7 March 2003  8:30 am
Boy, the myths and misinformation about the high tech industry that journalists perpetuate! Yesterday, for example, Robert Samuelson dedicated his Washington Post column to trying to explain to the ordinary newspaper reader what the ruckus is about regarding the recent FCC decision.

Samuelson writes a regular column on business and economic subjects for the Washington Post that is syndicated to other newspapers. Given the complexity of the arcane telecommunications industry, not to mention regulatory processes that govern it, it is laudable that he made an honest attempt to explain what is going on. Unfortunately, the explanation was full of errors and popular myths, with blame being ascribed to easy targets such as lawyers, publicists, regulators and lobbyists. In short, his explanation has almost nothing to do with the facts.

For example, Samuelson wrote "No industry will confidently invest in the future if (a) the economy is weak, (b) the industry has surplus capacity and (c) the rules for recovering its investment are unclear. Telecom now suffers all three ailments. The FCC can't be blamed for (a) and (b) -- the Internet "bubble" is a prime culprit -- but it bears much responsibility for (c)."

Although these statements fit in well with the current journalistic mythology, they do not fit the facts:

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The "Internet bubble" is not the prime culprit for the surplus capacity in the telecommunications industry. The surplus capacity in the telecommunications networks was a direct result of the Telecommunications Act of 1996, which for the first time allowed real competition in telecommunications in areas other than long distance and cellular services. Without that act of Congress, there would have been no surplus capacity, because there would have been no new entrants into the market, and there would have been no need for the regional Bell operating companies (RBOCs) to upgrade to more modern equipment to meet the new competition.  The combination of the RBOCS upgrading and the new entrants buying equipment for competitive networks caused the telecommunications boom of the late 1990s, but also caused the overcapacity that is haunting it today.

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The "Internet bubble" is also not the prime culprit for the weak economy.  The Internet stock bubble was a result of some fundamental economic factors, some of which are also key factors in the current weakness. For example, there was a significant expansion of the money supply between 1997 and 2000 due to the Federal Reserve's and other central banks' actions to contain a monetary crisis that started in Asia and was spreading to Russia and South America. The collapse of a huge hedge fund (Long Term Capital) caused the Federal Reserve to further increase the money supply to avoid a banking crisis.  The expanded money supply was recycled into the stock market and created the "bubble".  It also fueled the capital expenditure boom, helping to create the overcapacity in telecom and elsewhere in the economy.  Economy-wide overcapacity is a classical cause for economic weakness.

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There is no lack of clarity in the rules set into law by the Telecommunications Act of 1996 and interpreted by the FCC, although they may be incomprehensible to some journalists. The rules were only too clear for the RBOCs, who for obvious reasons did not want to cede their comfortable local monopolies.  The RBOCS fondly hoped that with the recent Bush appointees on the FCC, the FCC would reinterpret the rules in a way that would allow them to keep their monopolies.  They were mostly disappointed with the decision (hence the ruckus), although they did get regulatory relief for broadband expansions because the FCC found that there is now sufficient competition from cable companies to keep broadband pricing in check.

For the reader who is looking for some deeper insight into what is going on and going wrong in the telecommunications industry, I suggest reading The Slingshot Syndrome, particularly Chapter 7. For an explanation of the FCC decision and its effects on investment, read my February 21 and 24 columns. For an eye-opening insight into how some journalists decide what to write and how some of the journalistic myths are created, see the February 11 column.

A new column will be posted here every weekday morning at 8:30 ET. Let me know what you think – email me at reid@progenyvc.com

 

 
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Last modified: February 03, 2008
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