|
Monday,
3 March 2003 8:30 am
These are interesting
times. We are right at the turning point of some very historic
changes in the world, both in the political and economic realms.
In the political realm, we are starting the transition to a
"new world order" based on different principals,
alliances, and assumptions than what we have become used in the
last 50 years. What is not clear at all is what the actual new
world order will be, how it will work, and how peaceful or
bloody the transition will be.
The Iraq crisis
is just the provocation that is forcing nations and
international organizations such as the UN, NATO, and EU to
reassess the new world order and their place in it. Most of the
assumptions that went into the creation of these international
organizations will be challenged in the process. The challenges
will include diplomatic debates, expulsions, defections,
reorganizations, successor organizations, and unfortunately also
military threats and military confrontations.
 Similarly,
in the economic realm, we are at the end of a 21 year era characterized by falling inflation and interest rates. The next era
could either be one primarily characterized by deflation or increasing
inflation – this is not clear yet either.
We are seeing an
excellent illustration of why the saying "may you live in
interesting times" is considered an ancient Chinese curse.
|
Making Sense of It All