Wednesday, 11 December 2002 8:30 am
Nokia's warning yesterday that its new high-end phones with color screens, text messaging, and cameras are not selling as well as expected is the first indication that the most recent attempt at convergence may fail.  As I said in my November 14 column, 

"Perhaps it is time to reconsider convergence.  For 25 years we have spent enormous amounts of effort and money attempting to bring about the convergence of communications, television and computing, to no avail."

"Perhaps convergence will finally succeed with cell phones and PDAs, cell phones and video games, or cell phones and digital cameras.  Perhaps not.  We will soon know.  If it does not work, I propose that we put the dream of convergence behind us.  There must be more productive endeavors for our efforts and our investor's capital."

I still do, as I stated in my November 21 and December 6 columns, have very high hopes for the 2.5G/3G wireless packet switched always-on data services that are the basis for the email, graphics, and photo features of these new phones.  Those services will be great for a new generation of stand-alone cameras, automobile computers, laptops, PDAs, and notebooks.  Once new applications on those platforms become available and catch on, I think that some people will want the new integrated telephone/PDA/camera as a backup when the other devices are not handy.  It doesn't surprise me that the converged phones are not popular right out of the starting gate.